Ok Ok, first off, this isn't really going to win you the next jackpot, or the one after that, In fact it never guarantees that you will win anything.
So why are you reading this at all then?
Well, what I'm attempting to explain here, without using any maths, is a technique for maximising
your chances of winning some of the smaller amount in the lotto, and possibly make a little profit, instead of a total loss.
The technique I'll explain here is usable on the Irish lotto and other similar lotto's, its NOT usable on the EuroMillions for reasons I'll explain later.
Probability, Chance, Odds
In any lotto, the odds of winning are set very particularly, They'll be approximately 1 in (the population of the target audience), so the odds of winning the irish lotto are 1 in ~9 million, and the odds of winning your local GAA fundraising lotto is about 1 in 4000 and euromillions are 1 in ~76 Million.
This has two important consequences.
1. On average, someone (and only one person) will win the lotto on each draw
2. It's highly highly unlikely!!
Prize Money
Whatever the odds are set at, the prize money and cost of play must be set to suit. If the cost per line x chance of winning is less than the total prize money, then by playing all combinations you will make a definate profit (and it's quite likely some rich business person will spot it and do it, it has happened!)
At the irish lotto's current cost per line, the total prize would need to be over 14 Million (and you'd have to already have 14 Million play) for this to be any good.
Where Does That Leave Us
Ok, so we cant afford to do all possible cominations of numbers, nor would it be worth it anyway...
Picking more numbers increases your chances of getting some of the correct ones. But obviously that means doing more lines. Picking say 12 numbers and putting them on two lines isn't really much use, as chances are you'll get 2 correct numbers on each line!! So you'll have to have to play your 12 numbers in multiple combinations, but there's 952 possible lines. You can construct combinations such that if (for example) your 12 numbers included 4 correct numbers, that these 4 will be on the same line. There's a huge number of lotto 'systems' on the internet that use this principle, with built in 'guarantees' which are simply selling you a list of combinations of a bigger group of numbers.
In short: Picking more numbers maximises your chances of getting at least some numbers correct, using some smart combinations of these numbers reduce your cost, while ensuring that if some of your numbers come up, that they'll be on the same line and therefore you'll win something, playing like this means you'll win some of the smaller amounts more regularly.
Play other Lotto Games
The Lotto 5-4-3-2-1 game has much better payout for the lower numbers, with payouts for 1 correct number! Some bookies also do games based on the lotto draw which have better payouts for your odds.
Reality Check
No-one can give you a system to win the jackpot. This technique increases your chances or winning smaller prizes, hopefully reducing your losses. Given that it works on chance, it's not going to pay you back on every draw, but over the long term, on average you could break even.
I'd advise using these techniques in a syndigate, that way you can afford to do choose more numbers, and more combinations of those numbers, and can also absorb the greater losses between wins.
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Windows Azure Development
Recently at work, I've had to make a standard ASP.Net application work in Windows Azure.
At the time, I had been on some 'Early Adopter' days run by and on behalf of Microsoft. These courses all suggested that developing for the cloud 'requires a different mindset'.
Now, we had from the start of the project, assumed it was going to be big, so we had some important features already in place (multi-tenancy and stateless design)
So, how difficult was it?!
I created a cloud project in Visual Studio, Right- Clicked on the project and selected 'Add Web Role', Selected our existing project and built... No errors, no warnings...
Ran it in the the local dev environment... No issues...Uploaded to Azure...Mainly worked!!
So where were the issues: Local Disk Access, a number of images and xml files were being read/written or cached to disk. Some of these we architected out of the solution as there were better ways of doing it, but the solution using Azure Storage rather than local disk.
We used an IStorage interface, with two methods, save and retrieve, there were two implementations of this interface, Azure and InHouse, and they were used from within a httphandler. Uploads were read straight from the input stream to the Azure Storage stream asyncronously. This solved the issue we had, and used less memory on the role as nice side effect!
On the database side we had a number of issues, however all of these had been marked as deprecated in the move to Sql Server 2008 anyway so the advice would be to get the database working on Sql Server 2008, without using deprecated features, then move to Azure.
At the time, I had been on some 'Early Adopter' days run by and on behalf of Microsoft. These courses all suggested that developing for the cloud 'requires a different mindset'.
Now, we had from the start of the project, assumed it was going to be big, so we had some important features already in place (multi-tenancy and stateless design)
So, how difficult was it?!
I created a cloud project in Visual Studio, Right- Clicked on the project and selected 'Add Web Role', Selected our existing project and built... No errors, no warnings...
Ran it in the the local dev environment... No issues...Uploaded to Azure...Mainly worked!!
So where were the issues: Local Disk Access, a number of images and xml files were being read/written or cached to disk. Some of these we architected out of the solution as there were better ways of doing it, but the solution using Azure Storage rather than local disk.
We used an IStorage interface, with two methods, save and retrieve, there were two implementations of this interface, Azure and InHouse, and they were used from within a httphandler. Uploads were read straight from the input stream to the Azure Storage stream asyncronously. This solved the issue we had, and used less memory on the role as nice side effect!
On the database side we had a number of issues, however all of these had been marked as deprecated in the move to Sql Server 2008 anyway so the advice would be to get the database working on Sql Server 2008, without using deprecated features, then move to Azure.
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